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economy

ULI: Consensus of Economists Sees Promising CRE Outlook Through 2014

March 29, 2012

Costar… Even among the stream of positive real estate surveys and forecasts recently, the one issued this week by the Urban Land Institute (ULI) stands out. Expressing the consensus views of 38 leading real estate economists and analysts from across the U.S., ULI reported commercial real estate market conditions and the overall economy is expected to see broad improvement over at least the next two years as the recovery cycle kicks into overdrive and shifts… See original here: ULI: Consensus of Economists Sees Promising CRE Outlook Through 2014 Find our Weekly Commercial Real Estate, Private Equity and Fund Newsletters at www.WeeklyBrief.net

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‘Zombie’ Properties Come Back to Life

November 2, 2011

Three years after the economy’s turn sent commercial property prices tumbling, opportunities for investors are on the rise as lenders and servicers are disposing of more distressed loans and foreclosed properties.

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Week Ahead: Spotlight on Bernanke in Jackson Hole

August 20, 2011

It’s a relatively light calendar for economic data next week, perhaps offering a breather to harried investors. A deluge of bad economic news this week sent stock markets on a roller coaster, soaring up and down (mostly down) as traders tried to gauge the impact of another possible recession. A lot of attention will be focused on a speech scheduled for Friday by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke at an annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyo., hosted by the Kansas City Fed. It’s anyone’s guess what, if anything, new Bernanke has to say about the direction of the U.S. economy and the Fed ’s ability to impact that direction. On Aug. 9, the Fed said it plans to keep interest rates at extraordinarily low levels at least until mid-2013. It’s also unclear, given the current political climate as well as widespread skepticism over the success of earlier Fed measures, what other options the Fed has at its disposal. Before Bernanke’s speech investors can digest data on new home sales due Tuesday. The numbers are expected to be weak, as the housing market has remained consistently sluggish since the real estate bubble burst in 2008. A report on durable goods is due Wednesday. Analysts believe the July report will show some improvement over dreadful June numbers. The data is viewed as a good gauge of business investment. A second reading on second-quarter GDP, scheduled for release Friday, is expected to put numbers to the strong belief that the economy is slowing. Economists this week lined up to issue reports slashing growth expectations for the rest of the year. The Richmond Federal Reserve manufacturing survey is due Tuesday and the Kansas City Federal Reserve’s survey will be released on Thursday. There’s little reason to believe either will be markedly better than a similar regional manufacturing report issued this week by the Philadelphia Fed, which was awful. The final reading of the Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is due on Friday. Consumer confidence has melted in recent months as unemployment has remained high and the value of homes continues to plummet. Data on mass layoff activity for July is due Tuesday, while initial jobless claims for the week ended August 20 are due Thursday. View original post here: Week Ahead: Spotlight on Bernanke in Jackson Hole

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Commercial Real Estate Losing Haven Appeal

August 17, 2011

Commercial real estate could be losing its cache as a safe-haven investment because of concerns about the economy and reduced access to bank financing for landlords.

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Week Ahead: May Jobs Report Takes Center Stage

May 28, 2011

In a week shortened by the Memorial Day holiday, all eyes will be on the monthly employment report for May due on Friday. Economists expect May nonfarm payrolls to show an increase of about 200,000 and for the unemployment rate to drop slightly to 8.9% Stubbornly high unemployment has been a thorn in the side of the U.S. economic recovery. The high jobless rate bleeds into virtually every other facet of the economy, affecting consumer spending, which makes up 70% of the U.S. economy, and cutting into another long-suffering sector, housing. The modest improvements expected in the May numbers continue to confirm what economists said months ago — the economic recovery is going to be a long, slow slog. Other job-related economic indicators due next week include the ADP National Employment Report for May on Wednesday. Coming ahead of the government’s monthly job report, the ADP numbers frequently offer a preview of what’s likely to come. Also due on Wednesday is the Challenger report on layoff intentions for May. While hiring has been spotty for months as companies question whether the economy is strong enough to expand, the number of companies actually slashing payroll has fallen, according recent Challenger reports. That trend is expected to continue in May. Weather could play a role keeping weekly initial jobless claims at a high level. The report, due Thursday, could be impacted by the flooding of the Mississippi River and the tornadoes that have destroyed towns and wreaked havoc across the Midwest. Those natural disasters could impact jobless claims for several weeks to come. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for May is due Tuesday. Confidence is expected to have risen in May as political turmoil in Middle East has eased, lowering concerns for fuel shortages. Gasoline prices, soaring through most of the spring, leveled off ahead of the Memorial Day weekend and the unofficial kickoff of summer. “There is some relief for consumers and retailers, since gasoline prices started falling in the latter part of May after briefly crossing over and then dipping below the $4 per gallon mark. This has boosted consumer confidence and will help increase spending as we enter the summer season,” said IHS Global Insight economist Chris Christopher. Housing data in the form of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for March is due Tuesday. Home values continue to decline due to bloated inventories. It’s a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy as buyers delay purchases, hoping prices will fall even further. And prices continue to fall. The severe weather could also affect economic reports due from the Institute for Supply Management, which will release its data for manufacturing and non-manufacturing on Wednesday and Friday, respectively. Flooding and tornadoes around the country have disrupted supply chains, making it harder for factories to distribute their goods. See more here: Week Ahead: May Jobs Report Takes Center Stage

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Malls Face Surge in Vacancies

April 7, 2011

Even as the economy picks up steam, many of the nation’s shopping malls are suffering a hangover, thanks to changing consumer habits and the fallout from a massive building boom.

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Obama Turns to Economy in Ohio to Highlight Administration’s Stimulus Jobs

February 26, 2011

By Kate Andersen Brower and Roger Runningen June 18 (Bloomberg) — President Barack Obama pivoted from the Gulf of Mexico oil spill back to the economy today with an emphasis on the jobs created by his administration’s $862 billion economic stimulus package. At a groundbreaking in Columbus, Ohio, for the 10,000th road project funded by the stimulus, Obama said improving the nation’s infrastructure is one of the keys to long-term prosperity. “If we’re going to rebuild America’s economy, then we’ve got to rebuild America, period, from the ports and the airways that ship our goods, to the roads and transit systems that move our workers and connect cities and businesses,” Obama said at the project site near the Nationwide Children’s Hospital . The president is seeking to remind voters of his efforts to revive the economy five months ahead November’s midterm elections. Republicans have criticized the stimulus legislation as a wasteful spending program that hasn’t fulfilled the administration’s promises on job creation. Unemployment in Ohio is 10.7 percent, one percentage point higher than the national average. While the Federal Reserve’s regional business survey showed last week that the economy expanded in all the central bank’s districts in April and May for the first time in more than two years, job growth has lagged. Initial jobless claims increased by 12,000 to 472,000 in the week ended June 12, Labor Department figures showed yesterday. ‘Summer of Recovery’ “The economy is still lousy,” Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood told reporters before today’s trip. “We want to put the message out: This is going to be the summer of recovery.” LaHood, who traveled with the president to Ohio, said the project being highlighted today is expected to create more than 300 new jobs and is one of 462 transportation projects in Ohio funded by $1.1 billion in stimulus money. The work being done under the stimulus will “pay dividends to our communities for generations to come,” Obama said. “While the recovery may start with projects like this it can’t end here.” In a report to the president released yesterday, Vice President Joe Biden said the government has spent $620 billion from the stimulus and created or saved between 2.2 million and 2.8 million jobs. He predicted jobs created or retained by the end of 2010 will number “at least” 3.5 million. Republican Critics “We have created over 17,000 jobs in the last month” in Ohio, Republican state auditor Mary Taylor , a candidate for lieutenant governor, told reporters on a conference call today before Obama arrived. “But it’s an important fact to note that 16,800 of those jobs created were government jobs.” The White House is kicking off a six-week focus on scores of public works projects under way across the nation and into the election season. “This summer a lot more people are going to be working on highways, building clean water projects, weatherizing homes, and — and they’ll be drawing paychecks that they wouldn’t have otherwise drawn,” Biden said at a briefing yesterday that was part of the administration’s focus on the stimulus. The economy will be a top issue in the November elections that will determine which party controls the House and Senate. The Columbus area is represented in the House by freshman Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy . She was elected in 2008, the first Democrat to represent the district since 1982, according to the Almanac of American Politics. The non-partisan Cook Political Report rates her race against Republican former state Senator Steve Stivers as a toss-up. “There’s a feeling of disenchantment, disillusionment, discouragement — a feeling that no politician is going to be able to do much to turn the situation around,” Paul Beck , a political science professor at Ohio State University in Columbus, said of voter sentiment in the state. “Until the private sector really turns around you’re not going to have a big surge of jobs,” said Beck. Still, Beck said, “the stimulus money has been very important to Ohio, it’s prevented wrenching cutbacks in Ohio.” To contact the reporters on this story: Kate Andersen Brower in Columbus, Ohio at kandersen7@bloomberg.net ; Roger Runningen in Washington at rrunningen@bloomberg.net

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