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reuters

Week Ahead: Housing and Consumer Confidence

September 24, 2011

Investors next week will review housing data and its close ally, consumer confidence . Plummeting home prices have taken their toll on consumer confidence as homeowners have reined in spending in proportion to the shrinking value of their house. Factory data is also on tap from three regional manufacturing surveys. Sales of new single-family homes in August is out Monday. The number has been stagnant at about 300,000 for several months and a boost is needed if the battered construction sector is to regain its footing. During the housing boom early last decade, a massive inventory glut of new homes was created in areas such as Las Vegas, Florida and areas of Southern California. Many of the homes were built on speculation, but no buyers ever materialized. The market is still trying to work through that glut and construction workers are suffering the consequences. The National Association of Realtors Pending Homes Sales Index for August is due Thursday. The influential S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for July is due Tuesday. The U.S. housing woes are well documented and a revival of that sector is key to the overall economic recovery. But foreclosures are on the rise again, jumping 7% in August over July, according to housing research firm RealtyTrac, and default notices filed against delinquent homeowners rose 33% in August from the prior month. With foreclosures back on the rise and inventories glutted, home prices are expected to fall. The Wall Street Journal this week, citing a recent survey of 100 economists, said home prices, already down nearly 32% from their 2005 highs, are expected to drop another 2.5% this year and rise just 1.1% annually through 2015. All of these factors will weigh heavily on the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for September, also due Tuesday. Consumer spending makes up 70% of the U.S. economy, but most consumers are holding onto every dollar they can. The ripple effect has been devastating. The final reading of the Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for September is due Friday. The index currently stands at 57.8, the same level at the worst of the recent financial crisis. The Dallas Fed’s Texas Manufacturing Outlook is out Monday; the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey is due Tuesday; and the Kansas City Survey of Manufacturing on Thursday. A second revision of second quarter U.S. GDP is due Thursday, and a report on August personal income and spending is out Friday. Go here to see the original: Week Ahead: Housing and Consumer Confidence

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Week Ahead: Spotlight on Bernanke in Jackson Hole

August 20, 2011

It’s a relatively light calendar for economic data next week, perhaps offering a breather to harried investors. A deluge of bad economic news this week sent stock markets on a roller coaster, soaring up and down (mostly down) as traders tried to gauge the impact of another possible recession. A lot of attention will be focused on a speech scheduled for Friday by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke at an annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyo., hosted by the Kansas City Fed. It’s anyone’s guess what, if anything, new Bernanke has to say about the direction of the U.S. economy and the Fed ’s ability to impact that direction. On Aug. 9, the Fed said it plans to keep interest rates at extraordinarily low levels at least until mid-2013. It’s also unclear, given the current political climate as well as widespread skepticism over the success of earlier Fed measures, what other options the Fed has at its disposal. Before Bernanke’s speech investors can digest data on new home sales due Tuesday. The numbers are expected to be weak, as the housing market has remained consistently sluggish since the real estate bubble burst in 2008. A report on durable goods is due Wednesday. Analysts believe the July report will show some improvement over dreadful June numbers. The data is viewed as a good gauge of business investment. A second reading on second-quarter GDP, scheduled for release Friday, is expected to put numbers to the strong belief that the economy is slowing. Economists this week lined up to issue reports slashing growth expectations for the rest of the year. The Richmond Federal Reserve manufacturing survey is due Tuesday and the Kansas City Federal Reserve’s survey will be released on Thursday. There’s little reason to believe either will be markedly better than a similar regional manufacturing report issued this week by the Philadelphia Fed, which was awful. The final reading of the Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is due on Friday. Consumer confidence has melted in recent months as unemployment has remained high and the value of homes continues to plummet. Data on mass layoff activity for July is due Tuesday, while initial jobless claims for the week ended August 20 are due Thursday. View original post here: Week Ahead: Spotlight on Bernanke in Jackson Hole

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Week Ahead: Housing, Consumer Confidence, GDP

May 21, 2011

Data related to housing, consumer confidence and economic growth will all be eyed next week by investors looking for signs that the U.S. economy is strengthening. The housing sector has been especially slow to rebound after the worst financial downturn in the U.S. since the Great Depression. Analysts believe a full-fledged recovery won’t occur until the housing market hits a bottom. All signs seem to indicate that that hasn’t happened yet. Sales of new single-family homes in April will be released on Tuesday. These homes are competing with a surplus of existing homes put on the market due to record foreclosures . Housing experts say buyers are sitting on the sidelines waiting for prices to fall further, which is good for individual buyers but bad for the nation’s housing market. The March S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index will be released on Tuesday and HFA House Price Index on Wednesday. Both indexes are expected to show that home values are still falling. The National Association of Realtor’s Pending Home Sales Index for April is due Friday. Economists are expecting slight improvements at best. In the Northeast, rainy and unseasonably cold weather has cut into sales. On Wednesday home builder Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL) is expected to report its quarterly earnings and those figures will certainly have an impact on the broader markets. Meanwhile, on Tuesday two Congressional committees will hold hearings important to U.S. consumers. A Senate committee will discuss the future of the housing finance system, and a House committee will hold a hearing on domestic oil and gas production. The second estimate of first-quarter GDP is due Thursday. The preliminary report placed growth at 1.8%, but that number is expected to be revised higher as a result of an increase in consumer spending. Consumer spending comprises 70% of the U.S. economy. April personal income and spending reports are due Friday and are expected to show that incomes rose modestly, while spending was slightly higher. Consumer spending rose in no small part due to increased costs tied to soaring food and energy prices. Final readings for consumer confidence in May are due Tuesday from the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, and on Friday for the Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Earlier readings showed improved confidence as labor markets seemed to be gaining traction earlier this spring. But revisions my inch downward as higher gas and food prices eat into consumers’ pocketbooks. Among the bellwether companies reporting earnings next week are:

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